MauryTHINKS

Frank Tamberrino reported to City Council study session April 29 on Maury Alliance’s efforts to attract more retail to Columbia.

Council discussion focused entirely on potential supply of retail that the Alliance should attract — as if by magic. This discussion revealed no recognition of the root problem: Columbia’s retail downfall stems from a long trend of declining buying power. To find solutions, leadership must first focus on the correct problem. You cannot push on the supply rope and expect a Starbucks to magically appear.

Columbia’s problems arise from weak and declining local retail demand — which has become a crisis. Buying power trends and the demographic forecasts thru 2011 show that Maury County has not attracted residential growth with income characteristics to support better retail — and will not.

Contrary to the rumor about growth coming our way, what little growth we’ve seen since 2000 has transformed the community into a town of starter homes and work force housing sufficient only to support necessities and discount retail.

Growth in dollar discount locations, pay day and title loan sharks and auto parts stores along with recent closings of two of the quality retail stores in town confirm that we are mired in a cesspool of our own making.

Columbia has not attracted residents with sufficient disposable income to revitalize the community. College-educated youth are out migrating. Indications are that these trends will worsen. A few bullet points reveal that Maury County economic indicators sharply contrast with Williamson County.

- Higher-income, better educated people are moving into Williamson County at twice Maury County’s growth rate.

- Over the last three years, Williamson County added $1.6 billion annually in housing versus $0.23 billion in Maury — seven times more housing value annually.

- Median value of Williamson housing is greater than $300,000 — more than twice Maury value.

- Williamson household income will nearly double Maury Income by 2010.

- Twice the percentage of residents of Williamson County earn over $75,000 — nearly 60 percent compared to 30 percent by 2011.

- Williamson County doubles Maury Retail spending per capita. Gap widening. Maury spending per capita has been flat since 2000!

Better retail and services follow the money — not simply rooftops. Spending ability of residents — disposable Income — matters! If we turn around the demand for retail, then and only then will supply of retail increase.

Some people believe that Columbia has become unfriendly to business (as if this were a new problem), perhaps related to new planning. Economic data from the current decade suggest that we are now reaping what local leaders and factions have sowed perhaps over the last 20 years — or longer. Somewhere in Columbia’s past, local leadership lost its way, and a town that was a jewel lost its luster.

Only now is the result clear for all to see. Amenities and infrastructure have not been created to enhance Columbia in ways that would attract residents with sufficient disposable income to support healthy retail. Retails experts have looked at the data and moved on to Williamson County.

One reason to make forecasts is to evaluate what steps could alter the forecast. As the problem is lack of buying power, bold policies to attract higher-income, better educated new residents to Columbia are one remedy. Housing aimed at new residents with higher disposable income to jump-start the local community is a critical necessary ingredient.

Work force housing built and planned may be sufficient for years to come. Columbia needs development of better housing to attract people with spendable income. And we need a new employer to attract national “knowledge workers,” people with educations and expertise who will migrate to above average employment opportunities in areas with above-average amenities.

Everything that can be done to offset the forecast revealed in the bullet points should be considered. Targeting retail chains will be ineffective unless policies enhance the demand for better and more diverse retail.

As Frank Tamberrino said obliquely, “The numbers have to work.” The single most important number is buying power!

William W. Wade,

Economist,

Columbia